India Morning Report: HDFC Bank gives way, KG D6 ‘honestly’ increasing output

Of course the news of the week, last week preceding today’s AGM was the burly new gas find in MJ1. Actually predominantly for Oil, the MJ1 also falls in a gas rich area but details apparently have not filtered from the ongoing AGM and will probably be easier available to ‘non-digitised’ social networks which remain the most important achievement for Reliance and partake of their retail investor community of yore. Reliance will be forcing a turnaround in KG D6 output levels too after a long wait.

With india’s digitized data communities and even the lack of analysis communities a virtual impossibility, online social networks in India remain dominated by shopping cart brands and facebook and twitter remain ineffective for real business conversations despite teh affectatons as a large global user of social media.

Importantly to those of us who missed Idea to stay on the run to bank nifty, it is the right time to invest in banks es as network analysts and “chhutbhaiyas” in the markets continue to try to scale up the tiredness of the bull move earlier as always falsely seen to be led by HDFC Bank and HDFC for a few.

The FDI panel has made its recommendations and as with all things UPA, hose that have swtched to the bear side are still on the other edge because of such policy pronouncements that are so comprehensive one has to wonder if this government will ever go beyond cabinet Oks and then continue to miss the parliament or ordinance, an uncomfortable fact they seemed to have used home with earlier such comprehensive proposals already proved to be not worthy, excet for the putting of thought on paper and certainly not an implementation blueprint giving the holey book of India to the dubbas of the opposition NaMo and namesake Amit and one hears Adani as ‘implementation power’ of rural India.

Update: As Oil tracks evening session vales on the MCX in toay’s morning session it seems to have reach an optimal level for a big optimal short and if one is willing the 5400 contract can be kept rolling to a target of 4500 but in more than three months from here.

However such new eigenvalues and initial states apart, one still does not see any need to push forward recovery or for FIIs to exit India again as the bare minimum in play now is big ticket enough to get international media coverage of the coming big ticket recovery and of course the elections as well. Stay long on private banks like YES and select PSUs like PNB, don’t short the Banknifty and dont expect any pre election rallies either bear or bull for now.

Sell Side brokerage research however is increasingly reaching their ‘trend flatulence’ in the hype cycle esp detailed notes from Macquarie progressing retail credit growth at ICICI bank and their use should get limited too, till more coherent thought can lead the selling of India recovery to foreign players in the next wave aa normal di in the usage cycle of new products, in India’s case still true for research. Rerating at brokerages and new players like Deutsche, despite a good global dbAccess conference (in its most obscure markets, USA). Stanchart had a good media ‘week’ just less than a fortnight back and the HSBC seems to have slipped with lack of HQ and trading room attention on India.

Deutsche and even MS despite a good back handed effort from Riddham Desai for ‘India according to Morgan Stanley’ last week sticking to its 6% FY14 stream of thinking and detailing it rather at the last minute but still making it a comprehensive view. You prbably cn already guess about my opinion of other such commentary by the BNP Paribas wealth, trying to skeet the losers of yesteryears as Defense scrips converting to trend leaders, another “strategy push” which failed to interest the bulls or the new money to INDIA

Things look dustier in fact in Turkey because of the revolution and in Taiwan / Vietnam as China gets ready probably for exporting jobs to Asian locations and importing a lot of foodstuff in more wholesale ranges from American pork(M&A) to wheat rice and more.

Though in a more copious mode under the China series’ we would have covered details but right now i seem to be on shaky ground wrt revenue/study opportunities and writing has to be restricted to these daily / weekly updates i hope readers and followers do not take for another occasion to stop reading and writing. Aussie is going to be the other big ticket investment soon and Korea is not far behind so India still does not get rerated up in global indices, but one can see the noise of rerating up is real except at S&P which is better off completing a going global transaction of CrISIL it is stuck with as its arm in India